Hi
I was reading an article in The Economist last night:
A flurry of opinion polls appear to show that a majority will vote for the Scottish National Party (SNP) in May’s elections to the devolved Scottish Parliament. Then would come a referendum on independence, which the SNP advocates, and farewell to 300 years of history.
A careful reading of the polls, however, suggests that the Scots are a long way from walking out. Speculation that they might began with an ICM poll for the Scotsman newspaper last October. It found that 51% would vote for independence in a referendum and only 39% would oppose it.
But other pollsters asking differently worded questions get different answers. A YouGov poll for Channel 4 earlier this month, for example, found that only 40% of Scots would support independence and 44% were opposed. Then they were given further choices that were more specific. When asked how keen they were on a “completely separate state”, only 31% were enthusiastic, whereas 51% supported some variety of devolution, perhaps with different powers, for the existing Parliament.
John Curtice, a psephologist at Strathclyde University, believes that “Scots are no more and no less in favour of independence than eight years ago when the Scottish Parliament was created.”
Still, the SNP does seem to be doing well. Five of the past six polls have given them a lead over Labour, who now govern Scotland in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Mr Curtice reckons this lead, which has grown from two to six points since October, would net the SNP between 40 and 45 seats in the 129-seat Parliament. If so, they could run Scotland only in coalition.
Even if other parties, such as the Greens, who favour independence won perhaps ten seats, the nationalists would still fall short of the 65 votes needed to get a referendum bill passed. So although the battering that all this implies for Mr Brown’s Scottish Labour electoral base is bad news for him, at least it is unlikely that he will need a new passport.