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The UK’s treaties are signed through the EU – there have been 161 since joining the EEC in january, 1973 (that is, over 43 years).
With 32 entities, many of which are part of Britain, and the others are mostly poor countries who are not going to buy anything that Britain exports (Cars, Aerospace components, ect).
The most friendly countries take many years of hard negotiations to create a deal – think of Canada’s travails with the EU.
Yes, the EU is terrible at making trade deals, that’s why I don’t want to be in the customs union. While it might still take awhile to negotiate on our own, it will be much faster than inside of the EU.
Canada has made it clear that the UK is not high on their agenda.
Canada’s government is very contraversial (There is even a conspiracy theory that Trudeau is Fidel Castro’s son) and I don’t see them being in office much longer. Regardless of that, a lot of the right wing Tories want to join NAFTA, which means trade with Canada. This might not be a bad option as Trump wants to leave it, and we might be able to work with him to reform it instead.
Whistling up trade is no substitute. And if there’s another almighty banking crash like 2008. Gawd help us all. You need a vaiable strategy..
The 2008 crash was caused by house price inflation and preditory loan offers, not by trade. They are very different problems with different effects and solutions. I’m not sure why you keep bringing this up. But my solution is EFTA membership, which avoids any potential issues with loss of trade.
An EFTA is better than none. There are various possibilities.
But we have to leave the EU slowly, under our own steam, and under our own terms. This headlong break is very dangerous. We should be leaving when we want, not when our trading rivals want us to.
EFTA has nearly all of the advantages of membership, but without a lot of the restrictions, and I think it’s the option that the government will take.
And we should be free to rejoin; people should be free to change their minds, as you acknowledged.. That is where the European Court of Justice may well come in – in a ruling that Article 50 is not irreversible. There are various moves under way (outside the UK at the moment – in Dublin) to bring that case forward.
I don’t think anywone is arguing that we shouldn’t, I certainly am not.
I think you’re very wrong in your other points, but it would be distracting to take them up now.
I just don’t want people comming into the country who have an obvious disregard for our laws and customs.
A lot of your above points are either wrong or whistling up trade treaties and alliances that don’t exist (Canada may change when they discover that Trudeau is Casto in disguises?? join NAFTA???!!! pull the other one).These musings are a measure of the vacuum into whihc the UK is stepping.
Something like EFTA may be the outcome – eventually – but that depends on a lot of things. We may be lucky and come out of the EU without being too damaged – David Davis is actually the most canny of the brexiters, way above Boris Johnson and Liam Fox, the other ministers charged with brexit – but that is not setting a high bar.
We may be lucky – but that is still a gamble of a high order with people’s lives. We could also be very very unlucky and end up in 2019 with being outside any trading organisation. The British Chambers of Commerce, who point out that UK growth is likely to be shaken from its carry-on-as-usual approach pretty soon now. are distinctly worried, and they’re not alone.
We may be lucky, but Pete, we may very well not be, and you are more guilty than anyone of whistling in the dark about things being fine. If only!! Wake up and smell the sewers, mate. You strike me as a decent and considerate bloke, but you have a tendency to fool yourself on this issue.
There will be a price to pay for leaving the EU, contrary to the propaganda of Leavers who claimed otherwise – and drac, I really don’t remember your section of Leave complaining about the right-wing Tory promises of a Muslim paradise when we leave. I particularly dont remember lord farage of Trumpsbum pointing out that people will be worse off if we leave – if he did. it was pretty much kept under wraps by the media. I seriously believe that you wouldn’t have won if you had told that truth.
My hope is for delay in Article 50, which depends n the Supreme Court – and I have no idea what their decision will be, though I am led to believe that the government’s case is not legally strong. That way, a chance for the EFTA-type solution you want, drac (surely the best of the hopes if we do leave) may be more realistic.
Canada may change when they discover that Trudeau is Casto in disguises??
It would explain his bizzare reaction to Castro’s death. If I had to choose a conspiracy theory to believe it would be this one.
But it’s more his policies that will make him very unpopular, such as a massive increace in fuel tax in a country where you have to drive for hundreds of miles to get to the next city, which will make travel very expensive for individuals and increace the prices of postage and supermarket goods that are transported by road.
join NAFTA???!!! pull the other one
Why do you think this is unlikely? Daniel Hannan (One of the main Tory leavers) has been saying we should do that for years, and if we were to do that then now seems like the best time to make reforms given Trump’s negative view of it.
These musings are a measure of the vacuum into whihc the UK is stepping.
They are oppertunities that are now open for use to explore now that the EU can’t prevent us from doing so.
We could also be very very unlucky and end up in 2019 with being outside any trading organisation.
If you are talking about being blocked from WTO, that is a bunch of nonsense. They aren’t going to refuse one of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council (i.e. The people that decide what count as a country for the purposes of international treaties such as the WTO).
I particularly dont remember lord farage of Trumpsbum pointing out that people will be worse off if we leave – if he did. it was pretty much kept under wraps by the media.
There are lots of interviews of Farage dismissing Boris Johnson’s claims from when the campaign was still running. (Especially the NHS bus).
I seriously believe that you wouldn’t have won if you had told that truth.
Well I think the same about the remain campaign.
My hope is for delay in Article 50, which depends n the Supreme Court – and I have no idea what their decision will be, though I am led to believe that the government’s case is not legally strong. That way, a chance for the EFTA-type solution you want, drac (surely the best of the hopes if we do leave) may be more realistic.
Why would delaying Article 50 do that? It sounds like you just clutching at straws for a way to prevent us from leaving.
Daniel Hannan’s fantasies about joining the North American Free Trade Area are pure fantasy, drac. And with the US out, it’s an even weirder fantasy for the UK to be at the heart of a NAFTA without the USA.
Neville Chamberlain once had fantasies of the UK replacing Nazi Germany at the head of the anti-Comintern pact with Italy and Japan agains tthe USSR. Strange fantasies, hey?
We could also be very very unlucky and end up in 2019 with being outside any trading organisation.
If you are talking about being blocked from WTO, that is a bunch of nonsense. They aren’t going to refuse one of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council (i.e. The people that decide what count as a country for the purposes of international treaties such as the WTO).
You need to pay more attention to my argument. I did say that being outside any trading organisation meant having to accept WTO rules. They are very harsh, very unpleasant, as they offer none of the protections that the big trading areas offer. Having to be in the WTO only is what they mean when they talk about falling off a cliff edge.
I particularly dont remember lord farage of Trumpsbum pointing out that people will be worse off if we leave – if he did. it was pretty much kept under wraps by the media.
There are lots of interviews of Farage dismissing Boris Johnson’s claims from when the campaign was still running. (Especially the NHS bus).
That’s not quite what I said. People weren’t really paying attention to the divisions within the No camp. They were listening to the main organisation saying they would be £350million a week better off if they left. Now did lord farage actually say to us that we would be worse off, could be a lot worse off if we left. I don’t remember him saying that. i do remember him at one point talking of having to get rid of the NHS, mind you. If you know different about his warnings of poverty ahead, please say.
My hope is for delay in Article 50, which depends n the Supreme Court – and I have no idea what their decision will be, though I am led to believe that the government’s case is not legally strong. That way, a chance for the EFTA-type solution you want, drac (surely the best of the hopes if we do leave) may be more realistic.
Why would delaying Article 50 do that? It sounds like you just clutching at straws for a way to prevent us from leaving.
I can’t prevent the UK from leaving. Only the people changing their mind in sufficent numbers can do that.
But delay to article 50 being called gives us a chance to scout around for alternatives, even to come up with a viable plan, to assess a rapidly changing situation in Europe (where several changes of government are possible), to work on preparing new treaties.. A headlong rush to leave is a headlong rush to disaster.
If people do think it’s a disaster, events are likely to show them.Not me, not you, not lord Toff of Trump ington. A rush inot potential disaster is more of a panic move by brexiteers who are a bit worried that people might actually change their mind.
otherwise, we’re just fed with the fantasies of joining NAFTA, of Trudeau being replaced by a pro-Brit government, of Trump somehow favouring us,etc etc etc. no substitute for the real world, you’re whistling up alliances and treaties that do not exist, and we are going to suffer, especially those who are the poorest, many of whom voted No. They were sold a deceitful little pup.
Daniel Hannan’s fantasies about joining the North American Free Trade Area are pure fantasy, drac. And with the US out, it’s an even weirder fantasy for the UK to be at the heart of a NAFTA without the USA.
I have a different oppinion of NAFTA than Danial Hannan. I think that the US wanting to leave it is a good reason for the UK to join it, and we can work with the US to make reforms to NAFTA that benifit all parties involved.
Maybe that wouldn’t work, but I don’t see why we shouldn’t try to do it when we have the perfect oppertunity.
You need to pay more attention to my argument. I did say that being outside any trading organisation meant having to accept WTO rules. They are very harsh, very unpleasant, as they offer none of the protections that the big trading areas offer.
Then I misunderstood your argument. I saw an article on the Independent yesterday that was fearmongering that the UK would be blocked from WTO membership and I thought that was what you were refering to.
Having to rely only on WTO for trade is not an ideal solution, which is why I prefer EFTA membership. Even if we don’t become permanent members it could be used as a transitionary phase after the two years of article 50 negotiations. I would prefer permanent membership personally.
People weren’t really paying attention to the divisions within the No camp. They were listening to the main organisation saying they would be £350million a week better off if they left.
How do you know what people were paying attention to?
i do remember him at one point talking of having to get rid of the NHS, mind you
I don’t know what the right solution for the NHS is, it needs serious and major reforms if we are going to keep it. I’ve spent a lot of time in hospital in the last few years and all of the hospitals are horribly mismanaged. Giving people the wrong drugs or dosages, losing medical records, people having their beds taken away while they are still in hospital, having to speak to surgeons and anaesthetists in storage closets because they don’t have an office, ect. There are lot of scary stories I could tell you that I have whitnessed, I don’t know if it’s just bad management or if its because of a lack of resources as well.
But delay to article 50 being called gives us a chance to scout around for alternatives, even to come up with a viable plan, to assess a rapidly changing situation in Europe (where several changes of government are possible), to work on preparing new treaties.. A headlong rush to leave is a headlong rush to disaster.
Article 50 has been ruled to be both reversable, and to have an extendable time limit. If there is any significant change in the makeup of the 27 then we can still reassess the situation at the time.
otherwise, we’re just fed with the fantasies of joining NAFTA, of Trudeau being replaced by a pro-Brit government, of Trump somehow favouring us,etc etc etc. no substitute for the real world, you’re whistling up alliances and treaties that do not exist, and we are going to suffer, especially those who are the poorest, many of whom voted No. They were sold a deceitful little pup.
I’m not really sure why you think its unlikely for Canada to have a pro-British government. There is a sizable minority of people there that even want to go as far as to change the flag back to the red ensign to promote ties with the Commonwealth.
I think we’re both agreed that an EFTA type solution is probably the best we can get. I just hope we can get it.
It would be nice if Theresa May spelled it out, and I am hoping parliament will have a say in this.
It’s an unusually important decision for us all, and needs great care if a lot of people aren’t going to get hurt.
personally, I want to stay, and will hope that some kind of Single Market can be reconstituted with us as a member.
I think that the US wanting to leave it is a good reason for the UK to join it, and we can work with the US to make reforms to NAFTA that benifit all parties involved. Maybe that wouldn’t work, but I don’t see why we shouldn’t try to do it when we have the perfect oppertunity.
I would love to be with Mexico and Canada in a reformed NAFTA – the more free trade, the better. I don’t see it happening though. I think it’s wishful thinking, drac. I don’t really see anybody in Canada or Mexico wanting us in. If you can show me different, you’ll make me a happier man.
I misunderstood your argument. I saw an article on the Independent yesterday that was fearmongering that the UK would be blocked from WTO membership
Fair enough. I don’t read the Independent, sorry. And it is scaremongering. I cannot imagine us being booted out of the WTO.
People weren’t really paying attention to the divisions within the No camp. They were listening to the main organisation saying they would be £350million a week better off if they left.
How do you know what people were paying attention to?
rule of thumb, same as you. But I’m still waiting to hear you say that Farage was warning people that ‘freedom’ would come at a price, and that the price could be heavy.
Article 50 has been ruled to be both reversable, and to have an extendable time limit. If there is any significant change in the makeup of the 27 then we can still reassess the situation at the time.
Don’t think you’re right there, drac. There are moves in Dublin to take Article 50 to the European Court of Justice to find out if it is reversible. It’s assumed to be irreversible unless a court rules otherwise. I wish it were reversible.
So the EU parliament has been blocked for taking part in negotiations.
Remind me again why you want to stay with these people?
Being that the parliament is the only democratic part of the EU, European citizens can no longer have any input in the way they want the negotiations to go.
(I linked to RT because of the claims of ‘Russian propaganda’ going around in the US at the moment, if you didn’t get my joke.)
We’ll be fine.. see succinct and i haven’t worn my keyboard out..
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