-
Posts
-
for a strong Lib Dem vote in Richmond today.
I’m not a Lib Dem, but vote tactically was my advice to me boy who lives there.
Hope he does, and even more hope for a whack for Theresa May.
The Lib Dems are aweful
They don’t have any values, if they were actually liberals then they would be nearly as hostile to the EU as UKIP is, but instead they love it.
1 member liked this post.
I fear I have to side with Drac on this one. The Lib Dems lost all credibility after their stint as coalition partners with the Tories. They seemed to abandon all their principles in return for a bit of ‘power-sharing’. Their consequent obliteration in elections was entirely of their own doing.
Great news!!!
The Lib Dems won. A huge Tory majority overturned.
My boy sent me a text saying that he had to hold his nose when he voted for them, but anything to get that dogwhistle racist out. The Labour vote collapsed.
Much more importantly.this is a warning to May against a hard Brexit. After a filthy campaign, a narrow majority voted to leave so unless things turn out very badly we leave, but the manner in which we leave is all-important. This is a smack in the face for the right-wing brexiteers who are fidlling with the emergency exits to the plane while high-fiving each other.
An excellent result for the lib dems, however to keep it in context, the tories UKIP and the Greens did not challenge this seat. The result means absolutely nothing in the wider picture. Local “right wing” Brexiters voted in favour of the lib dems because of the 2nd runway proposal. It also demonstrates that tactical voting can play an important role in the future.
no, in the wider picture, it could be incredibly important.
BUT – it could be made meaningless by one event (see below)
First – why important? It should wake Theresa may up to the fact that a lot of Tory voters are very angry at Brexit and are ready to punish her party. There was a huge 21% swing; Witney a couple of months ago saw a 19% sawing on the same issue. Heathrow wasn’t an issue, despite Goldsmith’s hopes – all candidates opposed the third runway. Brexit was the only game in town.
May must be feeling the pressure against a hard brexit – and the news from Sunderland indicates she may be opting for as soft a brexit as she can get.
May has a tiny majority, and brexit looks likely to redraw the party map. If the Tories look likely to hemorrhage voters to the Libe Dems on the issue, Labour could well lose its middle class supporters to Lib Dems and Greens on the same issue. Corbyn has more to say on Castro than he does on Brexit. With UKIP under Paul Nutter biting into its working-class vote over Bexit, Labour has got to do some hard thinking if it’s not to land in some very real trouble.
Secondly, and most importantly – it could all be brought to nought by one event. Not the election of a Far Rightist as President in Austria, if that takes place on Sunday. Not the defeat of the governemnt in Italy on Sunday, which could lead to a crisis in italian banking and therefore the Eurozone.
The breaking point is likely in France, where Marine Le Pen is in with a very real chance of victory in May. If she wins, then all bets ar off. My guess is it’s the end of the EU, almost certainly the end of the Eurozone. Hard or soft brexit becomes meaningless at that point.
The Lib Dems got completely wiped out in the last general election, as Martin said. What makes you think people will suddenly start trusting them again?
It’s hilarious that some pro-EU commentators are trying to make out that this is a reflection of national sentiment against leaving the EU, when Richmond is a London borough that voted 75% in favour of remaining. It’s not really that shocking that they’ve now elected the anti-democratic Lib Dems who want to stay in the EU at all costs. They’re still irrelevant and still in the minority nationally. Full Brexit is going to happen regardless of how much remainers winge and whine about it.
The breaking point is likely in France, where Marine Le Pen is in with a very real chance of victory in May. If she wins, then all bets ar off. My guess is it’s the end of the EU, almost certainly the end of the Eurozone. Hard or soft brexit becomes meaningless at that point.
You forgot about the Netherlands too where Geert Wilders and his party PVV is leading nationally in all of the polls in the run-up to their general election in March, 2017. He’s anti-islam, anti-EU and has vowed to hold a referendum like we did. Nexit is next. The EU is done. Good riddance.
drac,
48% voted to Remain.
They’ll vote for whoever allows them to express their anger. In this case it was the Lib Dems. The people of Richmond trusted them.
May will have to take account of the fact that a large section of the Tory vote will be very angry if there’s a hard brexit and a car crash results.
If the car crash results, then an awful lot of people will be angry.
France is far more important than the Netherlands, where a Wilders overall majority is Fnliely. IN France, a le pen win is more than conceivable, and a president le Pen would have a lot mroe power than any Dutch PM. France is the 10th most powerful economy in the world (the UK is at the moment 9th). If France leaves the EU after May, that’s the end of the EU in effect. A hard/soft brexit becirrelevant.
But if the forxces of nationalist reaction can be kept at aby, then the pressures ofr a soft brexit are likely to get stronger.
If brexit turns into a disaster, then the whole country would want to get back into the EU. If all goes well, then none of us will have any problem in supporting a Brexit.
If it is a disaster, would you prefer to keep digging the national grave?, pushing millions into poverty? You’ll be on your own.
none of us are quite sure at the moment.
drac,
48% voted to Remain.Last time that I checked, 48% is still less than 52%.
France is the 10th most powerful economy in the world (the UK is at the moment 9th).
Where did you get those numbers from? And didn’t you claim that France had overtaken us with no hope of return a few weeks ago?
If brexit turns into a disaster, then the whole country would want to get back into the EU. If all goes well, then none of us will have any problem in supporting a Brexit.
The idea that we would ever rejoin the EU is misguided. There is virtually no support for joining the Eurozone or Schengen, which we would have to. Not that there will be much of the EU left by the time that would happen.
In regards to soft Brexit, the only one that I would be willing to accept is a modification of the EFTA (Norway model), to keep the rebate in place, and maybe some things that would place restrictions on national sovereignty.
Get involved in this discussion! Log in or register now to have your say!